O envelhecimento demográfico

Abstract

In the second part of the twentieth century a new phenomenon emerged, the aging of the population. It can occur either at the bottom or at the top of the pyramid of ages and it results, respectively, from a diminished percentage of young people or from an increased percentage of aged people. These two types of demographic aging are interconnected and their causes are either low fecundity and/or growing number of the elder. Before discussing the demographic characteristics of Portugal, the author describes broadly what happens in Europe. In Western and Northern Europe, all countries have old populations either at the bottom or at the top with two exceptions: Iceland and Ireland. The countries of Eastern Europe are only aged at the bottom and at the top being Albania the single exception. Portugal is one of the countries in Southern Europe with a younger population. In the Northern area of the country there is a big percentage of young people while the Southern area is aged at the bottom of the pyramid. The interior departments of the country are aged at the top while the departments along the coast are young at the top. In the third part of the text the author introduces the main theories dealing with the relationship between demographic evolution on one side and social and economic evolution on the other. Finally he speculates about the consequences of the recent demographic evolution in Portugal, that is, the shift from a population of positive growing to one of zero growing with remarkable levels of aging over 1) the productive capacity, 2) the dynamics of the economic system and 3) the economic variables sensitive to the age, the number of members and the composition of the families.